WHAT
DO AFGHANS WANT?
Staged US/UK Withdrawal; A Negotiated Solution
JNV Anti-War Briefing 125
4 March 2011 |
This briefing
is available as a pdf here.
Posted 13 March
2011 |
The Guiding Principle
On his first visit to Afghanistan as Prime
Minister, David Cameron said he could sum up the British war there
in two words: “It is about national security: our national
security back in the UK. Clearing al-Qaida out of Afghanistan,
damaging them in Pakistan, making sure this country is safe and
secure – it will make us safe and secure back home in the
UK. We don't have some dreamy ideas about this mission.”
(11 June 2010)
In his speech to the Conservative Party conference
in October, the Prime Minister said:
“We are not in Afghanistan to build a perfect democracy.
No dreamy ideas.”
Government ministers do not often speak of
the wishes of the Afghan people. Perhaps these are also “dreamy
ideas”. But the wishes of the Afghan people, so far as they
can be known, ought to be at the centre of British policy.
What we know is that the majority of people
in Afghanistan (73%) want an end to the airstrikes that have may
have killed thousands of Afghan civilians. We know that a majority
of Afghans (55%) want a rapid (though not immediate) withdrawal
of US-led forces.
We also know that the majority of Afghans
(73%) want a negotiated end to the conflict, and are willing to
accept the creation of a coalition government including the Taliban
leadership.
Fear of the Taliban
These are the results of a poll
commissioned by the BBC, ABC News (USA) and ARD (Germany), in
which 1,691 Afghan adults were interviewed in all of the country’s
34 provinces between 29 October and 13 November 2010.
This nationwide poll, like others before
it, found enormous hostility to the Taliban. Given a choice, 86%
of people said they would prefer the rule of the present government;
only 9% favoured a Taliban government. 90% of people said they
opposed Taliban fighters. The Taliban were seen as the biggest
danger to the country by 64% of people; the United States was
in fourth place with 6% (level pegging with ‘local commanders’
– a euphemism for US-backed warlords, we suspect).
‘Who do you blame the most for the
violence that is occurring in the country?’ The Taliban
came top with 33%. If we combine the scores for ‘US/American
forces’ (14%), ‘Obama/Bush/U.S. government/America’
(7%), and ‘NATO/ISAF forces’ (3%), the US-led forces
come second with 24%. Third place is held by al-Qa’eda/foreign
jihadis with 20%.
74% of people thought it was a good thing
that the US-led forces had come to Aghanistan to bring down the
Taliban. (Down from 83% in 2009.)
63% of Afghans thought that ‘The Taliban
are the same as before’, and had not grown more moderate.
Negotiate now
Despite all this, a solid 73% of Afghans
thought ‘the government in Kabul should negotiate a settlement
with Afghan Taliban in which they are allowed to hold political
offices if they agree to stop fighting’. This figure has
been rising since it was first asked in 2007: there was 60% support
in 2007; 64% in January 2009; 65% in December 2009. Throughout
this period, a solid, unfluctuating majority for a negotiated
solution to the war.
According to a poll in Britain, in 2009 64%
of British people thought ‘America and Britain be willing
to talk to the Taliban in Afghanistan in order to achieve a peace
deal’. (Sunday
Times, 15 March
2009)
Talks are only meaningful if the other side
is willing to play their part. It seems, in the case of Afghanistan,
that there is serious interest in a national reconciliation process
on the part of the Taliban and the Karzai administration –
but that these negotiations are being blocked by the United States
and Britain, who are determined to achieve a military victory.
The Taliban position
The Taliban’s demands were set out
in a New
York Times article on 20 May 2009:
‘The first demand was an immediate
pullback of American and other foreign forces to their bases,
followed by a cease-fire and a total withdrawal from the country
over the next 18 months. Then the current government would be
replaced by a transitional government made up of a range of Afghan
leaders, including those of the Taliban and other insurgents.
Americans and other foreign soldiers would be replaced with a
peacekeeping force drawn from predominantly Muslim nations, with
a guarantee from the insurgent groups that they would not attack
such a force. Nationwide elections would follow after the Western
forces left.’
Taliban softening?
On 2
April 2009, the Independent
reported that preliminary talks between Afghan President Hamid
Karzai and the Taliban seemed to have ‘yielded a significant
shift away from the Taliban’s past obsession with repressive
rules and punishments governing personal behaviour.’ It
was said that the Taliban were now prepared to commit themselves
to ‘refraining from banning girls’ education, beating
up taxi drivers for listening to Bollywood music, or measuring
the length of mens’ beards.’ Burqas would be ‘strongly
recommended’ for women in public, but not be compulsory.
In 2011, this change in policy seemed to
be firming up. (Guardian,
13 January)
The Taliban’s wider political demands
appear to have also softened considerably since 2007, when they
demanded control of 10 southern provinces. (Guardian,
15 October 2007)
Withdrawal
The Taliban staged withdrawal proposal fits
in with Afghan opinion. In a 2009 poll, 21% of Afghans said US-led
forces should leave immediately; 16% said between 6 months and
a year from now; and 14% within two years. 51% of Afghans wanted
withdrawal within two years.
In the November 2010 BBC poll, Afghans were
asked about US President Barack Obama’s announcement that
US-led troops would begin leaving Afghanistan in the summer of
2011. 28% of Afghans believed they should leave earlier, 27% believed
they should begin leaving in the summer, as planned. 17% said
that they should stay longer, and 26% said that it would depend
on the security situation.
Overall, a majority (55%) wanted US-led occupation
forces to begin leaving within the next six months.
People were also asked conditional questions.
If the security situation worsened, 41% would want US-led forces
to leave sooner, and a majority, 54% would want them to stay longer.
If the security situation improved in the next six months (before
summer 2011), a majority would want US-led forces to leave sooner
(59%) and only 37% would want them to stay longer.
A staged withdrawal probably also fits in
with British opinion. In a Guardian/BBC
Newsnight poll (13 July 2009), 42% of voters wanted British
troops withdrawn immediately; a further 14% wanted withdrawal
“by the end of the year” (within five months).
Replacement forces
The BBC/ABC/ARD
poll showed that 62% of Afghans supported the presence of
US troops in Afghanistan (but 73% wanted an end to airstrikes).
Only 11% supported the presence of Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.
It seems that Afghans want an international
presence in the country to prevent rule by the Taliban, who they
fear and detest. That international presence ought to be supplied
by independent forces uninvolved in the US-led invasion and occupation,
and controlled by the UN General Assembly (rather than the US-dominated
Security Council).
Conclusion
It is impossible to take the Taliban’s
position at face value – particularly on social controls
– but there seems to be no alternative to a genuine negotiated
solution to the Afghan conflict, in line with Afghan public opinion
and British public opinion. Britain and the US should withdraw
to their bases, draw down troops and allow a national reconciliation
process to take place. The future of the Afghan people must be
determined according to the wishes of the Afghan people.
JNV
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